A 10-miRNA risk score-based prediction model for pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer

Patients with hormone receptor (HR)-positive tumors breast cancer usually experience a relatively low pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). Here, we derived a 10-microRNA risk score (10-miRNA RS)-based model with better performance in the prediction of pCR and validated its relation with the disease-free survival (DFS) in 755 HR-positive breast cancer patients (273, 265, and 217 in the training, internal, and external validation sets, respectively). This model, presented as a nomogram, included four parameters: the 10-miRNA RS found in our previous study, progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status, and volume transfer constant (K^trans). Favorable calibration and discrimination of 10-miRNA RS-based model with areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.865, 0.811, and 0.804 were shown in the training, internal, and external validation sets, respectively. Patients who have higher nomogram score (>92.2) with NAC treatment would have longer DFS (hazard ratio=0.57; 95%CI: 0.39–0.83; P=0.004). In summary, our data showed the 10-miRNA RS-based model could precisely identify more patients who can attain pCR to NAC, which may help clinicians formulate the personalized initial treatment strategy and consequently achieves better clinical prognosis for patients with HR-positive breast cancer.