A Required Isolation Index to Support the Health System during the Pandemic of Covid-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Alice Freitas Versiani; Rosa Gouvea de Sousa; Priscila Totarelli Monteforte; Jim Jones da Silveira Marciano; Erivelton Geraldo Nepomuceno; Thalita Emanuelle de Nazaré; Márcio Lacerda; Márcio Falcão Santos Barroso; Marcos Antônio Abdalla; Érika Lorena Fonseca Costa de Alvarenga; Nayara Chagas Silva; Adelmo Mendes da Silva

doi:10.1109/TLA.2021.9451241

A Required Isolation Index to Support the Health System during the Pandemic of Covid-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Alice Freitas Versiani, Rosa Gouvea de Sousa, Priscila Totarelli Monteforte, Jim Jones da Silveira Marciano, Erivelton Geraldo Nepomuceno, Thalita Emanuelle de Nazaré, Márcio Lacerda, Márcio Falcão Santos Barroso, Marcos Antônio Abdalla, Érika Lorena Fonseca Costa de Alvarenga, Nayara Chagas Silva, Adelmo Mendes da Silva

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper addresses the effect of isolation on the spread of Covid-19 in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The compartmental model SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) has been employed. The parameters of the model have been estimated with the help of optimization techniques based on evolutionary strategies. From the model obtained, this work evaluates the impacts of reducing the isolation in the peak of infected people. Results show that the isolation has reduced the peak in 94%, which has played a crucial role in avoiding the health system collapse up to now. Moreover, around 70% of isolation guarantees a good quality of health system service to deal with the pandemic of Covid-19 according to the number of intensive care units and considering a reproductive number equals to 3.60. This is an important result to be considered during easing physical distancing measures.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	961-969
Number of pages	9
Journal	IEEE Latin America Transactions
Volume	19
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2021.9451241
State	Published - Jun 1 2021
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Compartmental models
Coronavirus
Covid-19
Mathematical epidemiology

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Computer Science
Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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10.1109/TLA.2021.9451241

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Versiani, A. F., de Sousa, R. G., Monteforte, P. T., da Silveira Marciano, J. J., Nepomuceno, E. G., de Nazaré, T. E., Lacerda, M., Barroso, M. F. S., Abdalla, M. A., de Alvarenga, É. L. F. C., Silva, N. C., & da Silva, A. M. (2021). A Required Isolation Index to Support the Health System during the Pandemic of Covid-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil. IEEE Latin America Transactions, 19(6), 961-969. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2021.9451241

Versiani, AF, de Sousa, RG, Monteforte, PT, da Silveira Marciano, JJ, Nepomuceno, EG, de Nazaré, TE, Lacerda, M, Barroso, MFS, Abdalla, MA, de Alvarenga, ÉLFC, Silva, NC & da Silva, AM 2021, 'A Required Isolation Index to Support the Health System during the Pandemic of Covid-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil', IEEE Latin America Transactions, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 961-969. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2021.9451241

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abstract = "This paper addresses the effect of isolation on the spread of Covid-19 in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The compartmental model SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) has been employed. The parameters of the model have been estimated with the help of optimization techniques based on evolutionary strategies. From the model obtained, this work evaluates the impacts of reducing the isolation in the peak of infected people. Results show that the isolation has reduced the peak in 94%, which has played a crucial role in avoiding the health system collapse up to now. Moreover, around 70% of isolation guarantees a good quality of health system service to deal with the pandemic of Covid-19 according to the number of intensive care units and considering a reproductive number equals to 3.60. This is an important result to be considered during easing physical distancing measures.",

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AU - Nepomuceno, Erivelton Geraldo

AU - de Nazaré, Thalita Emanuelle

AU - Lacerda, Márcio

AU - Barroso, Márcio Falcão Santos

AU - Abdalla, Marcos Antônio

AU - de Alvarenga, Érika Lorena Fonseca Costa

AU - Silva, Nayara Chagas

AU - da Silva, Adelmo Mendes

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A Required Isolation Index to Support the Health System during the Pandemic of Covid-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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