A three-component biomarker panel for prediction of dengue hemorrhagic fever

Allan R. Brasier, Hyunsu Ju, Josefina Garcia, Heidi M. Spratt, Sundar S. Victor, Brett M. Forshey, Eric S. Halsey, Guillermo Comach, Gloria Sierra, Patrick J. Blair, Claudio Rocha, Amy C. Morrison, Thomas W. Scott, Isabel Bazan, Tadeusz J. Kochel, Iris Villalobos, Carlos Espino

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

49 Scopus citations

Abstract

Dengue virus infections are a major cause of morbidity in tropical countries. Early detection of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) may help identify individuals that would benefit from intensive therapy. Predictive modeling was performed using 11 laboratory values of 51 individuals (38 DF and 13 DHF) obtained on initial presentation using logistic regression. We produced a robust model with an area under the curve of 0.9615 that retained IL-10 levels, platelets, and lymphocytes as the major predictive features. A classification and regression tree was developed on these features that were 86% accurate on cross-validation. The IL-10 levels and platelet counts were also identified as the most informative features associated with DHF using a Random Forest classifier. In the presence of polymerase chain reaction-proven acute dengue infections, we suggest a complete blood count and rapid measurement of IL-10 can assist in the triage of potential DHF cases for close follow-up or clinical intervention improving clinical outcome.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)341-348
Number of pages8
JournalAmerican Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Volume86
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2012

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Parasitology
  • Virology
  • Infectious Diseases

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    Brasier, A. R., Ju, H., Garcia, J., Spratt, H. M., Victor, S. S., Forshey, B. M., Halsey, E. S., Comach, G., Sierra, G., Blair, P. J., Rocha, C., Morrison, A. C., Scott, T. W., Bazan, I., Kochel, T. J., Villalobos, I., & Espino, C. (2012). A three-component biomarker panel for prediction of dengue hemorrhagic fever. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 86(2), 341-348. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0469