Collective Variational Inference for Personalized and Generative Physiological Modeling: A Case Study on Hemorrhage Resuscitation

Objective: Individual physiological experiments typically provide useful but incomplete information about a studied physiological process. As a result, inferring the unknown parameters of a physiological model from experimental data is often challenging. The objective of this paper is to propose and illustrate the efficacy of a collective variational inference (C-VI) method, intended to reconcile low-information and heterogeneous data from a collection of experiments to produce robust personalized and generative physiological models. Methods: To derive the C-VI method, we utilize a probabilistic graphical model to impose structure on the available physiological data, and algorithmically characterize the graphical model using variational Bayesian inference techniques. To illustrate the efficacy of the C-VI method, we apply it to a case study on the mathematical modeling of hemorrhage resuscitation. Results: In the context of hemorrhage resuscitation modeling, the C-VI method could reconcile heterogeneous combinations of hematocrit, cardiac output, and blood pressure data across multiple experiments to obtain (i) robust personalized models along with associated measures of uncertainty and signal quality, and (ii) a generative model capable of reproducing the physiological behavior of the population. Conclusion: The C-VI method facilitates the personalized and generative modeling of physiological processes in the presence of low-information and heterogeneous data. Significance: The resulting models provide a solid basis for the development and testing of interpretable physiological monitoring, decision-support, and closed-loop control algorithms.