Comparing Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients posttransplant program-specific outcome ratings at listing with subsequent recipient outcomes after transplant

To improve accessibility of program-specific reports to patients, the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients released a 5-tier system for categorizing 1-year posttransplant program evaluations. Whether this system predicts subsequent posttransplant outcomes at the time patients are waitlisted has been questioned. We investigated the association of tier at listing and the corresponding continuous score used for tier assignment, which ranges from 0 (poor outcomes) to 1 (good outcomes), with eventual 1-year posttransplant graft survival for candidates listed between July 12, 2011, and June 16, 2014, who underwent transplant before December 31, 2016. One additional tier at listing was associated with better 1-year posttransplant outcomes in liver (hazard ratio [HR], 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89–0.97) and lung transplant (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84–0.97) but not kidney (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.92–1.01) or heart transplant (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.93–1.10). In liver and lung transplant, longer time between listing and transplant was associated with stronger protective effects for high-tier programs. In kidney, liver, and lung transplant, posttransplant evaluations at listing had nonlinear associations with eventual posttransplant outcomes: relatively flat for 5-tier scores <0.5 and decreasing for scores >0.5. After adjustment for measured recipient and donor risk factors, posttransplant evaluations at listing predicted differences in eventual outcomes in liver and lung transplant, providing useful information to patients.