Confined animal feeding operations as amplifiers of influenza

Roberto A. Saenz, Herbert W. Hethcote, Gregory C. Gray

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

65 Scopus citations

Abstract

Influenza pandemics occur when a novel influenza strain, often of animal origin, becomes transmissible between humans. Domestic animal species such as poultry or swine in confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) could serve as local amplifiers for such a new strain of influenza. A mathematical model is used to examine the transmission dynamics of a new influenza virus among three sequentially linked populations: the CAFO species, the CAFO workers (the bridging population), and the rest of the local human population. Using parameters based on swine data, simulations showed that when CAFO workers comprised 15-45% of the community, human influenza cases increased by 42-86%. Successful vaccination of at least 50% of CAFO workers cancelled the amplification. A human influenza epidemic due to a new virus could be locally amplified by the presence of confined animal feeding operations in the community. Thus vaccination of CAFO workers would be an effective use of a pandemic vaccine.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)338-346
Number of pages9
JournalVector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases
Volume6
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2006
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Communicable diseases
  • Influenza A virus
  • Influenza in birds
  • Models
  • Swine
  • Theoretical
  • Zoonoses

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Microbiology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Virology

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