Does information available at delivery improve the accuracy of predicting vaginal birth after cesarean? validation of the published models in an independent patient cohort

Maged M. Costantine, Karin A. Fox, Luis Diego Pacheco, Julio Mateus, Gary D.V. Hankins, William A. Grobman, George R. Saade

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

28 Scopus citations

Abstract

We sought to validate a proposed vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) prediction model that includes variables available at or close to delivery and compare its accuracy to one that only uses variables available at entry to care. We performed a retrospective cohort study of term pregnant women with a vertex singleton gestation attempting a trial of labor (TOL) after a single prior low transverse cesarean delivery. VBAC rates, predicted using the close to delivery model, were partitioned into deciles. The observed VBAC rate in each partition was compared with the predicted one. The accuracy of the two models was compared using the receiver operating characteristics curve. The predicted VBAC probability was higher in patients who had VBAC compared with those who failed a TOL (median [interquartile range]: 74.9% [59.6 to 86.1] versus 48.6% [35.4 to 66.7]; p < 0.001). The correlation between the observed and predicted VBAC rates was high (r = 0.98; p < 0.001). In the subset of patients who had the complete set of variables available for the two models (n = 490), the close to delivery model was more accurate. We validated the proposed VBAC prediction model in an independent cohort. Incorporating information available at delivery improves its accuracy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)293-298
Number of pages6
JournalAmerican Journal of Perinatology
Volume28
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 13 2011

Keywords

  • Vaginal birth after cesarean
  • prediction model
  • trial of labor

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pediatrics, Perinatology, and Child Health
  • Obstetrics and Gynecology

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