TY - JOUR
T1 - Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
AU - Brazil-UK Centre for Arbovirus Discovery, Diagnosis, Genomics and Epidemiology (CADDE) Genomic Network
AU - Candido, Darlan S.
AU - Claro, Ingra M.
AU - de Jesus, Jaqueline G.
AU - Souza, William M.
AU - Moreira, Filipe R.R.
AU - Dellicour, Simon
AU - Mellan, Thomas A.
AU - du Plessis, Louis
AU - Pereira, Rafael H.M.
AU - Sales, Flavia C.S.
AU - Manuli, Erika R.
AU - Thézé, Julien
AU - Almeida, Luiz
AU - Menezes, Mariane T.
AU - Voloch, Carolina M.
AU - Fumagalli, Marcilio J.
AU - Coletti, Thaís M.
AU - da Silva, Camila A.M.
AU - Ramundo, Mariana S.
AU - Amorim, Mariene R.
AU - Hoeltgebaum, Henrique H.
AU - Mishra, Swapnil
AU - Gill, Mandev S.
AU - Carvalho, Luiz M.
AU - Buss, Lewis F.
AU - Prete, Carlos A.
AU - Ashworth, Jordan
AU - Nakaya, Helder I.
AU - Peixoto, Pedro S.
AU - Brady, Oliver J.
AU - Nicholls, Samuel M.
AU - Tanuri, Amilcar
AU - Rossi, Átila D.
AU - Braga, Carlos K.V.
AU - Gerber, Alexandra L.
AU - de Guimarães, Ana Paula C.
AU - Gaburo, Nelson
AU - Alencar, Cecila Salete
AU - Ferreira, Alessandro C.S.
AU - Lima, Cristiano X.
AU - Levi, José Eduardo
AU - Granato, Celso
AU - Ferreira, Giulia M.
AU - Francisco, Ronaldo S.
AU - Granja, Fabiana
AU - Garcia, Marcia T.
AU - Moretti, Maria Luiza
AU - Perroud, Mauricio W.
AU - Castiñeiras, Terezinha M.P.P.
AU - Lazari, Carolina S.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/9
Y1 - 2020/9
N2 - Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.
AB - Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.
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U2 - 10.1126/SCIENCE.ABD2161
DO - 10.1126/SCIENCE.ABD2161
M3 - Article
C2 - 32703910
AN - SCOPUS:85090491945
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 369
SP - 1255
EP - 1260
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 6508
ER -