Mathematical Modeling, In-Human Evaluation and Analysis of Volume Kinetics and Kidney Function after Burn Injury and Resuscitation

Objective: Existing burn resuscitation protocols exhibit a large variability in treatment efficacy. Hence, they must be further optimized based on comprehensive knowledge of burn pathophysiology. A physics-based mathematical model that can replicate physiological responses in diverse burn patients can serve as an attractive basis to perform non-clinical testing of burn resuscitation protocols and to expand knowledge on burn pathophysiology. We intend to develop, optimize, validate, and analyze a mathematical model to replicate physiological responses in burn patients. Methods: Using clinical datasets collected from 233 burn patients receiving burn resuscitation, we developed and validated a mathematical model applicable to computer-aided in-human burn resuscitation trial and knowledge expansion. Using the validated mathematical model, we examined possible physiological mechanisms responsible for the cohort-dependent differences in burn pathophysiology between younger versus older patients, female versus male patients, and patients with versus without inhalational injury. Results: We demonstrated that the mathematical model can replicate physiological responses in burn patients associated with wide demographic characteristics and injury severity, and that an increased inflammatory response to injury may be a key contributing factor in increasing the mortality risk of older patients and patients with inhalation injury via an increase in the fluid retention. Conclusion: We developed and validated a physiologically plausible mathematical model of volume kinetic and kidney function after burn injury and resuscitation suited to in-human application. Significance: The mathematical model may provide an attractive platform to conduct non-clinical testing of burn resuscitation protocols and test new hypotheses on burn pathophysiology.