Prediction of Cerebral Palsy or Death among Preterm Infants Who Survive the Neonatal Period

Objective: To assess whether neonatal morbidities evident by the time of hospital discharge are associated with subsequent cerebral palsy (CP) or death. Study Design: This is a secondary analysis of data from a multicenter placebo-controlled trial of magnesium sulfate for the prevention of CP. The association between prespecified intermediate neonatal outcomes (n = 11) and demographic and clinical factors (n = 10) evident by the time of discharge among surviving infants (n = 1889) and the primary outcome of death or moderate/severe CP at age 2 (n = 73) was estimated, and a prediction model was created. Results: Gestational age in weeks at delivery (odds ratio [OR]: 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.83), grade III or IV intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) (OR: 5.3, CI: 2.1-13.1), periventricular leukomalacia (PVL) (OR: 46.4, CI: 20.6-104.6), and male gender (OR: 2.5, CI: 1.4-4.5) were associated with death or moderate/severe CP by age 2. Outcomes not significantly associated with the primary outcome included respiratory distress syndrome, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, seizure, necrotizing enterocolitis, neonatal hypotension, 5-minute Apgar score, sepsis, and retinopathy of prematurity. Using all patients, the receiver operating characteristic curve for the final prediction model had an area under the curve of 0.84 (CI: 0.78-0.89). Using these data, the risk of death or developing CP by age 2 can be calculated for individual surviving infants. Conclusion: IVH and PVL were the only neonatal complications evident at discharge that contributed to an individual infant's risk of the long-term outcomes of death or CP by age 2. A model that includes these morbidities, gestational age at delivery, and gender is predictive of subsequent neurologic sequelae.