Prospective evaluation of a risk scoring system for predicting preterm delivery in black inner city women

Denise M. Main, Douglas Richardson, Steven G. Gabbe, Sharon Strong, Susan C. Weller

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

82 Scopus citations


Nine percent of United States births are preterm. The ability to efficiently identify women destined to deliver before term would enable obstetricians to initiate early intervention. The Papiernik-Creasy risk scoring system is being extensively applied for this purpose, without prospective validation in this country. We evaluated prospectively its ability to predict high risk women in a black inner city population, when applied once early in pregnancy. The system based on social, past medical, and current pregnancy problems, failed to identify at-risk patients. Adjusting the score cutoff and reweighting factors with discriminate analysis did not improve the predictive value. Analysis of an additional 60 social, demographic, and medical factors failed to produce a useful alternative risk assessment tool. We suggest that risk scoring systems such as these may not be helpful in socioeconomically at-risk populations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)61-66
Number of pages6
JournalObstetrics and gynecology
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 1987
Externally publishedYes


ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Obstetrics and Gynecology

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