Testing for the onset of fertility decline: an illustration with the case of Egypt

This paper describes and illustrates how the economic household production model can be taken as a frame of reference to the test state of the fertility transition for a given society. Egypt during the 1970s and early 1980s is taken as the setting to illustrate the test. The illustration exercise shows that the Egyptian household fertility behaviour during the 1960-80 period fits poorly with the model specificiation corresponding to a post-transition society. We find that fertility by the end of the 1970s was not endogenous to other household decisions, and conclude that a sustained decline in fertility was unlikely without this endogeneity. These results agree with previous literature on the fertility transition in Egypt. The paper concludes with limitations of the empirical test presented, laying emphasis on the lessons learned to examine the stage of the fertility transition in any society. The conclusions also highlight the importance of considering the stage of the transition in order to specify fertility models appropriately. -from Authors