The "double jeopardy" of midlife and old age mortality trends in the United States

Leah R. Abrams, Mikko Myrskylä, Neil K. Mehta

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Scopus citations


Since 2010, US life expectancy growth has stagnated. Much research on US mortality has focused on working-age adults given adverse trends in drug overdose deaths, other external causes of death, and cardiometabolic deaths in midlife. We show that the adverse mortality trend at retirement ages (65+ y) has in fact been more consequential to the US life expectancy stagnation since 2010, as well as excess deaths and years of life lost in 2019, than adverse mortality trends at working ages. These results reveal that the United States is experiencing a "double jeopardy" that is driven by both mid-life and older-age mortality trends, but more so by older-age mortality. Understanding and addressing the causes behind the worsening mortality trend in older ages will be essential to returning to the pace of life expectancy improvements that the United States had experienced for decades.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere2308360120
Pages (from-to)e2308360120
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Issue number42
StatePublished - Oct 17 2023


  • aging population
  • life expectancy
  • mortality trends

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General


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